John and Sarah: The Comeback Kids

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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/2008/10/john-and-sarah-comeback-kids.html

John and Sarah: The Comeback Kids


Ladies and Gentleman, the comeback has begun! The polls were starting to narrow anyway, and John McCain gave the campaign a final boost by blowing Obama away in tonight’s debate. The media can say what they will, but everyone I talked to thought that Senator McCain won convincingly and turned in his best performance yet. Senator Obama, on the other hand, looked flustered by McCain’s spot-on criticisms. After the debate ended, Obama looked worn out while McCain was bouncing off the walls. I don’t care what any pundit says; both candidates on stage tonight clearly knew who won and who lost.

Now, the question becomes how to build on this momentum and continue climbing until Election Day. By most counts, Obama is up by between three and eight points. Some polls, particularly the Gallup Daily Tracker, have shown a wider lead. However, I refuse to put stock in the Gallup Poll as they have recently changed their definition of a “likely voter”. Luckily, Gallup is honest enough to report how their poll would have come out if the traditional definition of a “likely voter” was applied. In today’s poll, for instance, Obama enjoys a 7% lead among registered voters, and an 8% lead among “likely voters”. However, if the standard definition of a likely voter had been used rather than Gallup’s new expanded version, the very same poll would have shown Obama leading by only 3%! Hence, my personal feeling is that Obama’s actual lead going into the debate was somewhere in the 3-6% range. Based on McCain’s performance tonight, I would expect a 1-2% shift in his favor in the next few days, leaving the race in a statistical dead heat. This is where Sarah Palin once again enters the picture.

If you haven’t noticed yet, Gov. Palin has been granted MUCH more independence lately and has ramped up her end of the campaign. She’s doing well in her speeches, and more importantly she has been doing well in interviews. I listened to her on Rush Limbaugh yesterday and the Mike Gallagher Show this morning - she did beautifully in both. She’s also been getting a bit more positive coverage by doing things like stopping the Straight Talk Express at Wal-Mart to buy diapers for Trig (don’t laugh, it happened recently). Finally, if she does indeed appear on Saturday Night Live, she will likely generate a good deal of publicity and emphasize the difference between Tina Fey and the real Sarah Palin. These moves by Gov. Palin may be able to shift the polls another 1-2%.

I’ve already lined out the possibility for a 2-4% shift based solely on McCain and Palin’s actions. Taking into account other factors, it could easily be bigger. The stock market will gradually begin to stabilize, deflating the panic that has inflated Obama’s recent numbers. ACORN is becoming a major issue as more and more fraudulent voter registrations are found. I would not be surprised to see several more major ACORN busts, possibly accompanied by criminal charges. Finally, if there is any major international news, McCain is the natural beneficiary based on his foreign policy credentials.
Posted by Adam Brickley, aka "ElephantMan" at 10/15/2008 11:15:00 PM
13 comments:

Robert Birch said...

One critique...the stock market is notorious for going down in the month before an election. The reason why the stock market goes down is because of uncertainty (inverters hate uncertainty)... which is the election . You toss in the economy and the market is more likely to finish at lower point than it started the month. But hopefully it will stabilize...hopefully...:)
October 15, 2008 11:42 PM
Nicky said...

I will say I agree with you 100% on what presumably the media will report concerning the debate. I saw the debate on CNN because outside the USA you r left with no option but to get USA news from the CNN. However CNN on every ramification is just baised and Wolf and heis "self aclaimed best political team" are sell outs (of course I will not fail to exempt John King).
How can those teams tell me a thing I saw for my self that Obama won the debate? Even a junior in political science will tell you Mc cain won the debate hands down.
In as much as I'm not American, I love America too much so I can only pray for a Mc cain pallin admistration instead of the free for all fall Obama is offering America and the world.
October 15, 2008 11:49 PM



Rose said...

With a victorious McCain tonight, Sarah will NOW be the 'trumpet' paving to the McCain victory in November. Sarah can now openly and more forcefully bring on ACORN, Ayers, Wright, the real Muslim B. Hussein Obama -- see many articles in
http://palin-vp.blogspot.com/

The mainstream media are running out of lies like the boy who cried "Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!"
October 15, 2008 11:52 PM




Jill said...

Two things:

I read the following on an ABC blog, written by Sam.

"If Barack Obama would apply for a job with the FBI or with the Secret
Service, he would be disqualified because of his past association with William Ayers, a known terrorist.

If he is elected President he would not qualify to be his own body guard!"

I had not thought of that before!

The last thing is this link that is an interview with Joe Wurzelbacher that took place before the debate.

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.1465/pub_detail.asp

Oh, one more. About the debate, McCain was awesome. Forget the television pundits and focus groups. Especially the focus groups. After more than 20 months of campaigning, and they still haven't decided, they're perpetually confused and can't be trusted to raise their hands at the right moment when asked who won. Obama's arrogant smiles were meant to belittle and made him look small. No matter how this election ends, John McCain and Sarah Palin are heroes.
October 16, 2008 12:11 AM


Mountain Mama said...

The market might completely tank soon, but that doesn't guarantee an Obama win.

First, Dick Morris insists that, when times are scary, people vote for the most familiar candidate----which is McCain in this election.

Second, McCain can keep teaching voters that the Democrats are by far mostly to blame for the stock market collapse----and will greatly worsen it by RAISING TAXES!

Third, McCain should put out commercials this week that include clips of Barney Frank and others' speaking two years ago IN FAVOR of forcing Fannie and Freddie to make those awful subprime loans----which now have caused the market to tank.

Voters showed on their instant-response dials (viewable on CNN) that they were upset that Gov. Palin----and they loved it when McCain told Obama off about always equating M. with Bush!
October 16, 2008 12:41 AM


Mountain Mama said...

Sorry; I'm tired.

The independent viewers on CNN showed with their response dials that they were upset that Obama and others have treated Gov. Palin badly. They also agreed that while
Obama might have debated better, most of them are voting for McCain, anyway!
October 16, 2008 12:44 AM


Tbone said...

I agree that McCain was really good tonight. I also agree that the McCain/Sarah ticket is closer than the polls show. Polls always overpoll democrats. I also think that everyone is underestimating Sarah's popularity.

I watch almost all of her rallies and they are packed and exciting. Sarah is incredible and she is getting Republicans excited again and maybe also bringing in new voters for McCain. Sarah is a superstar in the making. Hopefully McCain and Sarah can win this election.
October 16, 2008 1:03 AM


Larry Jackson said...

Personally, I thought McCain won the debate as well.

Over the next 19 days, I would like to see McCain hammer Obama on a couple of things. One is his association with ACORN and the other is his illusionary tax cut for 95% of Americans. The only way he can call it a tax cut is the way he has changed the definition of the word. See my article about this for more information.

The Ayers story is not a story that I see helping McCain, even though I fully believe there is much more to it than Obama is telling. I just want him to keep hammering on the socialist tendencies of Obama.
October 16, 2008 4:55 AM


Barracuda Babes said...

I just wanted to say thanks for all your great uplifting blogs. It's easy to get a bit down when all we hear is the Obama supporting media twisting reality. I come here for a breath of reality and encouragement! McCain did the best yet and was clearly a winner.
October 16, 2008 5:17 AM


knowitall said...

After the debate last night, I had this realization: In the 16 years, the dems have gone from "it's the economy, stupid" to "economy, it's the stupid"
October 16, 2008 8:01 AM


alyssa said...

I think McCain won last night. I wish he was like that in the first two. Obama did look a little tired and lost. I'm looking forward to Sarah on SNL. She'll do great. She's a star!
October 16, 2008 8:15 AM


Mountain Mama said...

Dr. Wm. Hermann, who coordinates the Automated Payment Transaction Tax website (www.apttax.com - it's THE BEST tax reform: only 3 cents every $10 transaction----but covers ALL federal programs), wants this message posted here about this election season:

<<
Where's the outrage? There is one and only one message that is a winner - the truth.

The liberal loan practices forced on banks is bringing the whole WORLD to its economic knees, causing far greater pain than any tax increase would ever cause. This was brought to us under pressure by Clinton and Acorn/Obama in the nineties.

The intentional deed was carried out by Democrat operatives, and now, Obama's own campaign directors, Raines and Johnson, recently retired as CEO’s from Fannie/Freddie from 1991 to 1998, and 1999 to 2004 respectively, covering the entire period of total deterioration.

This was maintained after Clinton by Frank, Dodd and, the “Gang of Three:” Obama, Pelosi and Reed. When McCain personally tried to stop it in 2006, he was blocked by these same characters, who took large sums of campaign contributions from Fannie and friends.

Do we want this bunch in charge of the whole government, when they should be prosecuted for the inconceivable havoc their probably illegal actions and liberal policies caused?

If we can't get out that stupid-simple message, and not distract by talking about anything else, we deserve to lose.

William J Hermann, Jr MD
Medical Director, Clinical Laboratories
Memorial Hermann Memorial City Hospital
>>
October 16, 2008 8:35 AM

A Mom for McCain said...

We have to continue strong--not be dissuaded by what the mainstream media thinks or believes--We must continue to work tirelessly--talking to people in all places we go--wear a button or sticker to the grocery store, to your child's soccer game, to the mall. Be ready to answer questions--be cheerful, upbeat, a good representative...
We CAN win this election. Our entire nation's future depends on it!

Please read "We Must Muster Moral COURAGE" here:

http://moremomsformccain.blogspot.com/

Let's revive our enthusiasm for what and who we know is RIGHT!
God bless-
October 16, 2008 8:36 AM

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